| Issue |
Renew. Energy Environ. Sustain.
Volume 1, 2016
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 37 | |
| Number of page(s) | 4 | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/rees/2016049 | |
| Published online | 12 September 2016 | |
Research Article
A case study of outlier event on solar irradiance forecasts from the two NWPs with different horizontal resolutions
1
National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), OSL, Central 2,
1-1-1, Umezono, Tsukuba,
Ibaraki
305-8568, Japan
2
Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA),
1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba,
Ibaraki
305-0052, Japan
⁎ e-mail: hideaki-ootake@aist.go.jp
Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is directly effected by global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and has also large variations in spatial and/or temporal scales. For a safety control of an energy management system (EMS), a day-ahead forecast or several hour forecast of solar irradiance by a numerical weather prediction model (NWP) becomes important for a control of reserve capacity (thermal power generation, etc.). In particular, a large forecast error of PV power and/or GHI forecasts has to be prevented in the EMS. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) developed two NWPs with different horizontal resolutions. First one is a mesoscale model with horizontal grid spacing of 5 km and second one is a local forecast model with that of 2 km. The two NWPs have been used as an operational model in JMA. In this study, GHI forecasts obtained from the two models are validated and conducted a case study for large forecast error (outlier events) case of GHI.
© H. Ohtake et al., published by EDP Sciences, 2016
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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